Behind the Numbers: Terps vs. Cal

September 14th, 2008 11:12 pm by Jeff Newman

Anyone who watched the Terps’ 35-27 victory over No. 23 California yesterday knows the real score: the Terps dominated through three quarters and rendered the final 15 minutes nothing more than a slow victory march as the jetlagged Golden Bears frantically tried to make up ground. But the final score shows a close, one-possession game in which Cal outgained the Terps by 164 total yards, and by an absurd 267 yards through the air. But the Terps were clutch, converting six of 12 3rd downs, while holding Cal to two for 11 on 3rd down. But the Terps also dominated on another down, at least until the 4th quarter.

After three quarters, the Golden Bears, one of the most prolific offenses in the country through two weeks, were averaging only 2.65 yards on 1st down against a stout Terp defense that allowed only 38 rushing yards. In 23 chances, the Terps held Cal to less than one yard on 1st down 14 times. An inflated 4th quarter in which Cal quarterback Kevin Riley threw for 245 of his 423 passing yards raised Cal’s average on 1st down to 4.05 yards, but it was too little too late.

Conversely, the Terps averaged a gain of 4.34 yards on 1st down for the game. Gaining four or five yards on 1st down takes a lot of pressure off the offense, because it can run or throw on 2nd down and still not end up in 3rd and long. Whereas the Golden Bears found themselves often having to throw against an inspired Terp pass rush on 2nd down, the Terps’ offense had options.

By forcing the Golden Bears into 2nd and long, the Terps were able to pin their ears back and come after Riley, resulting in five sacks and many more pressures. On the other hand, with the Terps working into 2nd and short, they kept a Cal defense which had to respect the run and pass guessing.

And finally, the Terps’ success on first down led directly to their aforementioned success and Cal’s woes on third down. If they defend the run and vary the playcalling like they did agaisnt Cal, the Terps can expect more of the same this Saturday against Eastern Michigan.

jnewmandbk@gmail.com

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