Where to begin. This was actually a game where you could look at the box score and easily guess the winner. The Terps were dominated across the board in nearly every offensive category. But this week, we’ll be looking at a stat similar to the one examined after arguably the Terps’ most dramatic win of the season, 35-27 over Cal. That week, the stat of choice was average gain on first down. This week, it’s the average gain needed on the most important down in football – third down.
The Terps finished the game 4-for-13 on third down, and the Cavs finished 10-of-17. It’s not a coincidence.
For the game, the Terps had to average of a gain of 7.3 yards on third down – they needed four yards or less on only three of their third downs – in order to attain a fresh set, meaning the Terps’ average third-down was a third-and-long. This gave them little option but to pass on third down, rendering play-action ineffective and allowing Virginia to play pass all the way. Considering that the Terps’ average gain per play was 5.5 yards, it’s easy to see why they did so poorly converting third downs.
On the other hand, Virginia’s average gain needed on third down was 4.5 yards, and 11 times they needed only four yards or less. The Cavs averaged 5.7 yards per play – only 0.2 better than the Terps – but because they needed so fewer yards on third down, they converted far more. Virginia’s average gain per rush was higher than their average gain needed on third down, so they had flexibility which put pressure on the Terps’ defense.
Again this comes back to each team’s success on the first two downs. The Terps only averaged 3.8 yards per rush compared to 4.9 for Virginia. Chris Turner was 12 of 22 on first and second down with one interception. The average gain per attempt on those throws was 5.32 yards. On the other side, Virginia quarterback Marc Verica completed 16 of his 23 attempts on first and second down for a 6.52 average gain per attempt.
The Terps were never able to sustain drives long enough to score because they continuously put themselves into third-and-too-far situations, whereas Virginia excelled at gaining positive yardage on first and second down, giving them options to pick up third-and-shorts. Like with most things in this sport, it begins with the run. The Terps niether ran the ball nor defended the run well, and it showed up first in the third-down-conversion percentages, and ultimately in the final score.