Weeks after the majority of the conference released their schedule, the Terrapin baseball team unveiled their 2010 season today.
Every season is a difficult schedule when you play in the ACC, but coach Erik Bakich made a point to improve the team’s quality of opposition. Mathematically, this year’s schedule will be more difficult, but not by much. There will be seven new opponents, but outside of conference foe Miami, the newcomers won’t set the world on fire.
There are some more subtle differences that could still have an impact. Read on for a few observations.
Going beyond the numbers
Just as in basketball, making the NCAA Tournament can be influenced by RPI. There are 34 at-large berths and seeds that are determined by a combination of record, quality wins, and schedule difficulty.
Last season, in an effort to reach 30 wins, the Terps faced an underwhelming schedule featuring duds such as Coppin State and UMES. The Eagles could barely field a full baseball team and were the worst team in the country according to the RPI ratings found here . UMES, a team the Terps had the privilege of playing twice, was only three spots better.
Last season the Terps’ 24 different opponents had a combined RPI of 125.33. Only 10 of their opponents had a better RPI than their No. 88 ranking, and seven opponents were among the worst 100 teams in the country. The Terps went 10-0 in those games. Those victories were balanced out by the collective lack of success of their opponents.
“You won’t be seeing us play Coppin State or UMES anymore,” Bakich said earlier in the Fall. “We can’t be playing these games that lower our RPI no matter what we do. We are trying to make the regionals.”
He kept his promise but the new schedule isn’t much different, and features a lot of the usual suspects, such as Navy and UMBC.
This season, the Terps’ 23 different opponents have an average RPI of 111.56. There are only nine teams with better RPI than the Terps’, but just four teams are among the worst 100, and none worse than UMBC, who was only six spots ahead of UMES for what it’s worth.
The difference can be attributed to the swapping of 14 teams — Seven in and seven out.
The teams who aren’t on this year’s schedule are: North Carolina-Wilmington, Coppin State, Quinnipiac, UMES, Mount St. Mary’s, Duke, and LaSalle. They had a average RPI of 197.43 and that would be lower if it wasn’t for UNC-Wilmington and Duke, both of whom were in the Top 75.
They will be replaced by: Florida International, Virginia Military, Hofstra, William & Mary, Virginia Commonwealth, Miami, and Liberty. The new teams had a average RPI of 146.71. It certainly helps when the conference schedule rotation switches in the No. 13 ‘Canes and switches out No. 75 Duke, but this year’s schedule features 23 NCAA Tournament teams and will at least give the Terps an opportunity to influence their RPI with their play on the diamond. But that doesn’t mean an NCAA Tournament berth is any more likely.
(Bad) Luck of the draw
If ever there had been a year when the schedule offered the Terps a chance to make the ACC Tournament, last year was it. They were lucky enough to play most of their comparable opponents like Wake Forest and Duke at home. But they blew that opportunity, losing two of three to Boston College and getting swept by the Hokies at home.
This year the conference slate is quite different, especially when you consider the quality of opponent that will be in Shipley this season. Clemson, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Georgia Tech, and Virginia will all visit the newly named Bob “Turtle” Smith Stadium. With the exception of NC State, those teams were the cream of the conference crop last season.
Who knows? Maybe the home field advantage will give the team a better shot at stealing a victory or two, but that will be offset by the disadvantage of playing the weaker teams on the road. The Terps finished a miserable 6-18 on the road, including just four wins against conference opponents.
It’s also worth pointing out the road schedule isn’t that much easier with trips to Florida State and Miami.
Traveling to play against some beatable teams will be a difficult task, especially for the inexperienced and young Terps. It will be interesting to see how that plays out as the season goes on.
Big things on the horizon
While this year’s schedule doesn’t have any true, tough out-of-conference games, the coming years could be different. Bakich just recently finalized the team’s opening series for 2011, which will begin in Austin, Texas against the perenially awesome Longhorns.
In addition, one player on the team told me there is a good chance the 2012 season will start with a trip to Los Angeles and a date with traditional power UCLA.
This is just another part of Bakich’s national recruiting strategy. It’s hard to imagine Bakich will be able to start challenging the Longhorns and Bruins for local prospects, but it could improve his visibility in some of the most talent-rich states in the entire country.
These series will be difficult, and it could be a long time before Bakich and his staff have brought in the type of talent that will be able to compete regularly with those teams.
But I think Terp fans will be pleased that their new coach is trying to measure up to the best in the country…as opposed to the worst and the fourth-worst.
Mike Lemaire is the 2009-2010 Terrapin baseball beat writer. He can be reached at lemairedbk@gmail.com